Ike -- Cat 4 Headed for Gulf of Mexico, Eventually

If Ike stays on his current path, he could temporarily weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane. We can thank Cuba for that. Dr. Master’s, however, gives Ike a 30% chance of “wobbling”, tracking over more water than land (Cuba), and arriving in Key West as a Cat 4 hurricane. That is exactly why residents of Key West really need to get the hell out of Dodge. A mandatory evacuation is, well, mandatory. No, they don’t go and force you out of your home like they do in Cuba, but maybe they should!

The models have changed a good bit from run to run since my last blog entry. I kept thinking, “I need to do an entry” (even if it is just for me, hubby, and Ronny – even the other 4 dogs don’t read the blog), but then I’d get busy and I’d think, “Oh, it’s almost time for the next update from the NHC or an update from Dr. Masters, I’ll just wait.” So, since they changed from run to run, not much was missed other than illustrating how uncertain things can be, how things change so often, and the storms this season have been especially hard to forecast.

The waters in the Gulf of Mexico will provide just the fuel needed to help Ike intensify if he does traverse Cuba and emerge as a weakened storm. He hasn’t yet decided where he’ll vacation after visiting Cuba or the Keys.

Gulf Coast landfall once Ike does decide where he’s going is probably 6-7 days away. The 8 a.m. EDT models from the WU site range from a hit on the border of MS/AL to a hit well south of the TX/MEX border. The enter Gulf Coast needs to watch Ike. There’s no need to panic, just know Ike is out there, be informed, and be prepared. The picture I'm posting below shows the 8 a.m. models; however, by it's almost time for the 2 p.m. models. Yeah, yeah - I got busy again. If you click on the picture, a new window will open and you'll seethe most up-to-date run.