Ike Looks Like a Bully, Hanna Ready to Land

As of the 11 a.m. EDT updated from the NHC, Ike is looking like more of a threat to the Florida keys. Then again, the 5 a.m. EDT update had the center line (on which we are not supposed to concentrate) hitting south Florida. I know better, but it is so hard not to look at that line! I only bring it up because it illustrates how these things fluctuate between updates, sometimes right up until landfall, and how important it is to be prepared. The first picture below shows the forecast cone as of the 11 a.m. update, with some mark-up of my own. I didn't make them up :) I used data from the WU site to indicate projected intensity. The image is linked to the NHC and if you click on it you'll get the most recent forecast track from the NHC. The second image shows the 5 a.m. forecast track for Ike.

There is still great uncertainty concerning Ike's future. Quoting Dr. Masters,
"20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.
Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida)."

I encourage everyone to read Dr. Masters' blog. I mean only Dr. Masters' entry, not necessarily the comments by others --at least not until I have time to give you a list of the people who know what they're talking about ;).

Notice the change in just 6 hours?

11:00 a.m EDT:

5:00 a.m. EDT:HANNA

TS Hanna will likely make landfall in South Carolina tonight as a strong tropical storm, just below hurricane status. There's a slight chance she'll attain hurricane status, but it's not likely. There's not a huge difference between a strong TS and a low-end Cat. 1 hurricane.

She is a big woman, uhm, storm, & moving quickly. Because of this, all of the mid-Atlantic and New England states can expect to see tropical storm-force winds. That's sustained winds, not just gusts.