I say all the time that we shouldn't pay attention to the center line, but it's hard not to do it. It's human nature! Because we all do it, I figure it's at least a good way to illustrate the way things change from update to update. So, I'm once again urging you to notice that uncertainty, how things change from update to update.
It's getting closer and closer to what is almost certain to be a TX landfall. In the next couple hours, I hope to start adding the links that will help everyone get the information they need. Please check back often!
One note of comfort -- Dr. M. does think that the models we'll see tomorrow morning really should give us a much better idea of where Ike will make landfall.
Most notable quotes from Dr. Masters' Blog:
"All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the
"...Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the
"I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:
Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category
Category
Category 4 or
And now, for the images. Clicking on an image will open a larger version in a new window. You can find updated images from the NHC here, and from WU here.
NHC 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
2 p.m. EDT & 5 p.m. EDT
My Cropped Images of Those Same NHC Images
To Illustrate the Change in 3 Hours
Computer Models Image from WU
Runs from 2 p.m. EDT
runs are at 2 a.m./p.m. & 8 a.m./p.m.
they are not always up "on the dot"
notice the "initialized" time not the time stamp in the upper left corner of the image
This image links to the WU page where this image/updates are found
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